Gabon

Economic Overview

The Gabonese Republic is a sparsely populated, upper-middle-income country in Central Africa with an economy overwhelmingly dominated by oil production. This hydrocarbon wealth has given Gabon one of the highest GDP per capita figures on the continent, but the benefits have not been broadly distributed. Gabon is now at a critical juncture, facing declining output from mature oil fields and pursuing a vital strategy of economic diversification, with a unique and pioneering focus on conservation and the "green economy." The 2025-2026 outlook is stable, supported by high oil prices, but long-term growth is contingent on the success of its diversification and climate finance initiatives.

GDP Size & Growth Trajectory

Gabon's economy is highly dependent on oil prices and production levels. Growth has been modest, with the IMF forecasting real GDP growth to be 3.0% in 2025. The government's strategic plan, "Plan d’accélération de la transformation" (PAT), is aimed at accelerating growth by developing non-oil sectors and improving the business climate.

Sector Composition

• Industry: This sector dominates the economy, contributing over 50% of GDP. This is almost entirely driven by the oil and gas industry. Oil accounts for the vast majority of export earnings and government revenue. Manganese mining is the second most important industrial activity, with Gabon being one of the world's top producers.
• Services: The services sector accounts for roughly 40% of GDP, led by transport, commerce, and public administration.
• Agriculture & Forestry: This sector is small, contributing about 6% to GDP. Sustainable forestry is a key focus, with the government having banned the export of raw logs to encourage local processing and value addition.

Inflation Trends

As a member of the CEMAC monetary union, inflation in Gabon has been more contained than in many regional peers. The peg to the Euro provides a strong anchor for price stability.

Fiscal & Monetary Policy Stance

• Monetary Policy: Monetary policy is managed by the regional Bank of Central African States (BEAC), with a focus on maintaining the stability of the CFA Franc (XAF) peg to the Euro.
• Fiscal Policy: Fiscal policy is heavily dependent on volatile oil revenues. The government is working to improve fiscal management and increase non-oil revenue collection.

Debt Sustainability Indicators

Public debt levels have fluctuated with oil price cycles. The government is focused on maintaining debt sustainability and using its oil revenues for productive investments.

Table 1: Key Macroeconomic Indicators (2023-2026F)

Market Size & Demand Potential

The domestic market is small due to the low population density, but per capita income is high.

Population Size and Demographics

With a population of just under 2.5 million, Gabon is one of Africa's least densely populated countries.

Urbanization and Consumer Hubs

The country is highly urbanized, with over 90% of the population living in cities. Libreville, the capital, and Port-Gentil, the hub of the oil industry, are the main economic centers.

Business Environment

The government is actively seeking to improve the business environment to attract investment into non-oil sectors.

Ease of Doing Business & Regulatory Reforms

The country has established a one-stop-shop investment promotion agency, ANPI-Gabon, to facilitate business registration and support investors. The legal framework is based on French civil law and is part of the OHADA system, which provides legal certainty for businesses.

Political Stability & Governance

Gabon has experienced long periods of political stability, though it underwent a significant political transition in 2023.

Political Environment

After being ruled by one family for over 50 years, a military coup in August 2023 led to a change in leadership. A transitional government is currently in place, with a stated commitment to holding elections and restoring constitutional order. The transition has been peaceful, and the new authorities have emphasized their commitment to honoring international agreements and protecting foreign investments.

Infrastructure Readiness

Oil wealth has funded the development of relatively good infrastructure compared to regional peers.

Transport and Logistics

• Ports: The main ports are Owendo (near Libreville), which handles general cargo and minerals, and Port-Gentil, which is the center for oil exports.
• Railway: The Trans-Gabon Railway is a critical piece of infrastructure, connecting the interior (and manganese mining areas) to the port of Owendo.

Sector-Specific Opportunities

Gabon's economic diversification strategy offers unique investment opportunities, particularly in the green economy.

1. Sustainable Forestry and Wood Processing

With its vast rainforest coverage (88% of the country), sustainable forestry is a key priority. The ban on raw log exports has created a major opportunity for investment in local wood processing, from sawmills and veneer plants to high-value furniture manufacturing.

2. Eco-Tourism

Gabon is a global leader in conservation, with a network of 13 national parks protecting over 11% of its territory. This creates a unique opportunity for high-value, low-impact eco-tourism. The country's pristine rainforests, diverse wildlife (including forest elephants, gorillas, and chimpanzees), and untouched coastline are prime assets for developing luxury eco-lodges and conservation-focused tourism experiences.

3. Green Finance and Carbon Credits

Leveraging its status as a "high forest, low deforestation" country, Gabon has been a pioneer in developing mechanisms for carbon finance. It was the first African country to receive payments from the Central African Forest Initiative (CAFI) for reducing deforestation, creating a model for generating revenue from carbon credits. This presents an opportunity for investors in the carbon market and conservation finance.

4. Mining (Manganese)

Gabon is one of the top three global producers of manganese, a critical mineral for steel production. The sector continues to offer opportunities for investment in mining and processing.